Europe is undergoing its most significant defence transformation in decades as policymakers confront a question that once seemed unlikely: could the continent face a major war again?
The shift began after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, triggering the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. The war not only shattered long-held assumptions about peace on the continent but also forced European governments to rethink their security strategies.
At the same time, increasingly direct signals from the United States have urged European allies to take greater responsibility for their own defence. The combined pressure of war on Europe’s borders and changing transatlantic expectations has pushed the European Union to accelerate plans for military readiness, defence cooperation, and industrial expansion.
A Strategic Wake-Up Call
For decades, Europe’s stability relied on economic integration, diplomacy, and the security umbrella provided by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the United States. Institutions like the EU’s single market and NATO’s collective defence framework were built on the belief that large-scale war in Europe had become almost unthinkable.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed that perception.
The conflict exposed significant weaknesses in Europe’s defence posture. Many EU countries had reduced military spending after the Cold War, focusing instead on economic growth and social programs. As a result, stockpiles were limited, defence production lines were slow, and coordination across national militaries often proved difficult.
European leaders now acknowledge that those assumptions must change.
In December, EU leaders approved a €90 billion loan package to sustain support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced new initiatives aimed at strengthening Europe’s deterrence capabilities by 2030.
Warnings from military and political leaders have reinforced the urgency. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently cautioned that NATO territory could become a target within five years, while Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius warned that Europe might already have experienced its “last summer of peace.”
Public Opinion Remains Cautious
Despite growing concern among policymakers, public sentiment across Europe remains more hesitant.
A large-scale poll conducted by Euronews found that roughly three-quarters of respondents said they would not personally take up arms to defend EU borders. Only a minority expressed willingness to fight.
However, attitudes differ across the continent. Countries closer to Russia or Belarus show much greater concern. In Poland, Lithuania, and Denmark, more than half of respondents consider Russian military aggression a primary security threat.
Across Europe more broadly, armed conflict now ranks among the public’s major concerns, alongside inflation, energy security, and migration.
Eastern Europe Leads Preparedness Efforts
Governments in Eastern and Northern Europe have taken some of the most visible steps to prepare for potential crises.
Countries such as Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland, Finland, and Sweden have adopted strategies that combine military investment with civil preparedness.
Lithuania and Latvia have strengthened border defences, including restoring wetlands to serve as natural barriers and installing new surveillance infrastructure. Latvia has introduced mandatory national defence education in schools, while Poland has built new barriers along its border with Belarus and expanded security training programs.
Nordic countries are also reviving Cold War-era civil defence practices. Sweden, for example, distributed updated “If Crisis or War Comes” preparedness brochures to households nationwide in 2025, outlining guidance on emergency planning, food storage, and communication disruptions.
These initiatives reflect a broader shift: modern deterrence depends not only on military power but also on societal resilience.
Brussels Pushes Coordinated Defence
At the EU level, defence coordination has accelerated rapidly.
European defence spending exceeded €300 billion in 2024, a sharp increase compared with pre-war levels. Under the proposed 2028–2034 EU budget framework, an additional €131 billion has been allocated to aerospace and defence—five times more than the previous cycle.
A central initiative is the EU’s “Readiness 2030” roadmap, which aims to ensure that troops and military equipment can move across EU borders within three days during peacetime and within six hours during emergencies.
To achieve this, Brussels is developing a “Military Schengen” system to remove bureaucratic obstacles to cross-border troop movements.
Approximately 500 pieces of critical infrastructure—including bridges, railways, tunnels, and ports—are also being identified for upgrades to handle heavy military equipment. The estimated cost ranges between €70 billion and €100 billion.
ReArm Europe and Defence Industry Reform
In 2025, the European Commission launched “ReArm Europe,” a coordination initiative designed to strengthen the continent’s fragmented defence industry.
Historically, European countries developed separate weapons systems with limited interoperability. This duplication increased costs and slowed procurement.
The initiative includes two key financial mechanisms:
- European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP): €1.5 billion for joint research and production projects involving at least three EU countries.
- Strategic Armament Financing Envelope (SAFE): a €150 billion loan facility designed to support joint weapons procurement.
By pooling demand, EU countries hope to expand production capacity, negotiate better contracts, and ensure that military systems are compatible across national forces.
The American Factor
Pressure from Washington has also played a major role in Europe’s defence shift.
Recent U.S. national security strategies emphasize an “America First” approach and encourage European allies to increase defence spending. Former U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly criticised NATO members for not meeting spending targets.
At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, allies committed to aiming for defence spending equivalent to 5% of GDP by 2035. Most European countries still remain below that level, though spending has risen steadily since 2022.
Some American strategic documents also suggest a long-term interest in stabilising relations with Russia, raising concerns in Brussels that Europe may eventually need to rely more heavily on its own defence capabilities.
Structural Challenges Remain
Despite rising budgets and political momentum, significant obstacles remain.
Europe’s defence sector still faces fragmented supply chains, slow procurement systems, and regulatory complexity. Decades of reduced investment cannot be reversed overnight.
Defence readiness assessments have already identified production bottlenecks and compatibility problems between national systems. EU institutions are working to simplify funding rules and accelerate industrial capacity, but scaling production for modern wartime demand remains difficult.
Public reluctance toward military service may also complicate long-term mobilisation strategies.
A Race Against Time
Europe’s evolving defence strategy reflects a profound shift in political thinking. Defence policy—once treated as secondary to economic integration—is now central to the EU’s strategic agenda.
The challenge for European leaders is immense. They must modernise defence industries, maintain unity among 27 member states, continue supporting Ukraine, and manage a changing relationship with the United States.
The question facing Europe today is no longer whether it should prepare for war.
It is whether the continent can build enough readiness to prevent one.